Not one more. In the United States of America, we do not kill women or men who might be innocent. Or women or men who are guilty; we give them justice, but justice doesn't include killing individuals. Yes, we actually do, but it's going to stop. There is not a single rational reason to murder individuals either convicted or accused of a crime, even one as horrific as homicide. "An eye for an eye" comes from a fictional book and describes 16th-c. justice.
Georgia murdered Troy Davis last night despite legitimate doubts about his guilt. That isn't justice; it's vengeance. Retribution. Revenge. It doesn't bring the victim's family anything but the fleeting satisfaction of seeing another dead man. It doesn't bring them justice -- and if Davis is innocent, it puts them at a further remove from justice, as the state is far less likely to pursue other suspects now that Davis is dead. The death penalty is revenge that accomplishes nothing other than murdering someone, and enough of those someones are either innocent or have questions surrounding their guilt to make it what it is: barbaric. The death penalty is barbaric. It's the kind of thing you see Ned Stark do because Ned Stark would have existed 700 years ago were he real and if he lived on earth.
The death penalty must end. Republicans can laugh all they want about the state -- federal or individual states -- letting people die or actually murdering them, but this is a fight we're going to win. A lot of people had their eyes opened last night about how unjust this antiquated and barbaric institution is; some of them might even be willing to fight. It's insane that in 21st-century America, it's a "left" thing to be against the death penalty.
Here's what the ACLU has to say about the death penalty:
"The U.S.'s capital punishment process:
(1) is fraught with error;
(2) discriminates on the basis of socioeconomic status, race, and geography;
(3) is arbitrary and capricious, including its use against the mentally ill and defendants who did not kill anyone and did not intend that anyone be killed;
(4) costs taxpayers far more than life imprisonment without release;
(5) does nothing to protect people from crime;
(6) seriously harms the survivors of homicide victims;
(7) is plagued by cheap legal representation - the worst, not the best, of American lawyering; and
(8) greatly diminishes the worldwide stature of the United States and its ability to work to end human rights violations in other countries."
This cannot continue a single day longer. No more Troy Davises.
The Campaign to End the Death Penalty is an excellent resource for this, but it comes down to being active and demanding that your state representatives end this travesty in your state. I don't think the conservative Supreme Court will act on it any time soon, so it's a state-by-state fight.
Cross-posted at www.destructiveanachronism.blogspot.com
9.22.2011
9.21.2011
Troy Davis Again
The state of Georgia is going to murder -- yes, murder, because I believe that's what it's tantamount to, and I don't blame the individuals who will actually do the deed, as they're just doing their jobs, and in this economy you can't really afford to tell your employer to go screw themselves. No, the murder is the responsibility of the fatally (no pun intended) flawed criminal justice system operating in the state of Georgia and in the United States of America. In any sane country, there would be no death penalty. I recognize that there's some controversy regarding the death penalty. Here's the short version of why it makes zero sense.
You can't. Take. It. Back. There are many documented cases of individuals who have been proven innocent after being executed. There are many more cases of alleged criminals being found innocent after having been convicted for non-executable crimes. If you put a convict to death who later turns out to be innocent, you're complicit in murder, the crime for which you put the alleged convict to death. That means you -- judge, officer, witness whoever are a murderer. Doesn't that irony seem poignant? The standard of evidence used to convict individuals in the United States criminal court system is "beyond a reasonable doubt," and I believe the number is considered 95% certainty. Could you kill a woman or man if there's a 5% chance she or he is innocent? I couldn't. Because if you're wrong state of Georgia, that's not the sort of thing you can ever make right. You kill someone and it's final; you can't bring them back, you can't console their loved ones.
As I wrote on Daily Kos yesterday, I don't know if Davis is guilty or not. But there are just too many questions to murder him without a new trial. Killing someone isn't something you just do. In my opinion it's not something you should ever do, but if you're going to, you have to be 100% certain. Not 95%, not a shoulder-shrug "meh, maybe," but absolutely certain. In Davis's case, that's not the case.
You can't. Take. It. Back. There are many documented cases of individuals who have been proven innocent after being executed. There are many more cases of alleged criminals being found innocent after having been convicted for non-executable crimes. If you put a convict to death who later turns out to be innocent, you're complicit in murder, the crime for which you put the alleged convict to death. That means you -- judge, officer, witness whoever are a murderer. Doesn't that irony seem poignant? The standard of evidence used to convict individuals in the United States criminal court system is "beyond a reasonable doubt," and I believe the number is considered 95% certainty. Could you kill a woman or man if there's a 5% chance she or he is innocent? I couldn't. Because if you're wrong state of Georgia, that's not the sort of thing you can ever make right. You kill someone and it's final; you can't bring them back, you can't console their loved ones.
As I wrote on Daily Kos yesterday, I don't know if Davis is guilty or not. But there are just too many questions to murder him without a new trial. Killing someone isn't something you just do. In my opinion it's not something you should ever do, but if you're going to, you have to be 100% certain. Not 95%, not a shoulder-shrug "meh, maybe," but absolutely certain. In Davis's case, that's not the case.
9.20.2011
9.17.2011
9.16.2011
Ah Our Happy Times
Just a brief thought to share: Mad Men and Breaking Bad are probably the two most important television shows on the "air" today. Both are completely heartbreaking and soul-searching. Both are works of art, reminiscent of mid-70s cinema, where there's no such thing as a hero(ine) and everyone is suspect. What does it say about us that we're there?
Obligatory Cubs Post
So Matt Garza pitched a beautiful game, giving up 3 runs on 7 hits in 9.0 IP -- the only problem is that the three runs all came courtesy of the Astros' Carlos Lee, who hit two home runs, the second coming with two outs (two outs!) in the ninth with a man on to send the game to extra innings. Garza's been one of the few bright spots for the Cubs this year, and the fact that he didn't walk a batter (his control's been an issue his entire career so far) bodes well for next season. The Cubs ended up winning 4-3 in 12 innings on a Marlon Byrd infield single to drive home burgeoning star Starlin Castro (really that's not a pun in any way, just his name and there's no other way to put it).
Aramis Ramírez went 3-for-5 with a walk, a strikeout, and his first triple of 2011. After a shaky start, he's now hitting .310/.364/.514 with 25 HR and 91 RBI. Solid glove at third. Career now, he's .284/.342/.500. Since coming over from the Pirates in 2003, he's been the Cubs' most reliable hitter by far (with a hat-tip to the departed Derrek Lee). And at Wrigley, he's out of his mind, going .336/.398/.596 this season and .308/.374/.553 with 124 HR and 438 RBI during his career (all stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com). He's at 23.9 WAR in his time with the Cubs with four seasons with an OPS+ at or above 130 and seven of nine with an OPS+ above 120.
Is he a Hall of Famer?
I think so. No he's not at, nor ever will be at Mike Schmidt status. I doubt anyone ever will be. And is Ramírez a Hall of Famer now? No. But he's 33, playing on a bad team, with the option of moving to a contender after this next season (as a Cubs fan, I pray he won't, but were I GM -- and I should be Tom Ricketts!) -- I would have dealt him at the deadline for some very good prospects. In any case. Let's say he has three good years somewhere near this level left in him, with a few more after declining or in a more limited role. Even playing for the Cubs and discounting that they might get better (not holding my breath) or that he might move to a team where he has some protection in the lineup or could even prolong his career as a DH, you figure he could well end up around some 450 HR and over 1500 RBI for sure. Steady glove, team leader, plays the hot corner well. Even accounting for his career OPS declining below .841 (and discounting for his early Pirate years playing for terrible teams) and career OPS+ of 114 (which is admittedly not Hall-worthy, but again, considering his Cubs years) dropping to say 110, he's still an intriguing candidate, especially as a mostly post-steroid era player.
That last point is important. Ramírez's breakout year was in 2001 with the Pirates in the foul heart of the steroid era, but his best production has been 2004-since, largely in the era of increased vigilance on the part of the MLB and fan distaste for the likes of Barry Bonds's prolate spheroidical head.
I submit that Aramis Ramírez will be worthy of a Hall of Fame induction when he retires. Will he get there? I don't know and I doubt it. The folks who make those calls seem to be coming around to advanced statistics, and it depends on Ramírez continuing to produce at the level he has consistently for the last nine years in Chicago. I think he'll end up with a very worthy case though, provided voters take into account the shitty teams he's played for and the fact that he's played his entire career at third. In any case -- and no doubt about this one -- he's a Cubs Hall of Famer for sure.
Aramis Ramírez went 3-for-5 with a walk, a strikeout, and his first triple of 2011. After a shaky start, he's now hitting .310/.364/.514 with 25 HR and 91 RBI. Solid glove at third. Career now, he's .284/.342/.500. Since coming over from the Pirates in 2003, he's been the Cubs' most reliable hitter by far (with a hat-tip to the departed Derrek Lee). And at Wrigley, he's out of his mind, going .336/.398/.596 this season and .308/.374/.553 with 124 HR and 438 RBI during his career (all stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com). He's at 23.9 WAR in his time with the Cubs with four seasons with an OPS+ at or above 130 and seven of nine with an OPS+ above 120.
Is he a Hall of Famer?
I think so. No he's not at, nor ever will be at Mike Schmidt status. I doubt anyone ever will be. And is Ramírez a Hall of Famer now? No. But he's 33, playing on a bad team, with the option of moving to a contender after this next season (as a Cubs fan, I pray he won't, but were I GM -- and I should be Tom Ricketts!) -- I would have dealt him at the deadline for some very good prospects. In any case. Let's say he has three good years somewhere near this level left in him, with a few more after declining or in a more limited role. Even playing for the Cubs and discounting that they might get better (not holding my breath) or that he might move to a team where he has some protection in the lineup or could even prolong his career as a DH, you figure he could well end up around some 450 HR and over 1500 RBI for sure. Steady glove, team leader, plays the hot corner well. Even accounting for his career OPS declining below .841 (and discounting for his early Pirate years playing for terrible teams) and career OPS+ of 114 (which is admittedly not Hall-worthy, but again, considering his Cubs years) dropping to say 110, he's still an intriguing candidate, especially as a mostly post-steroid era player.
That last point is important. Ramírez's breakout year was in 2001 with the Pirates in the foul heart of the steroid era, but his best production has been 2004-since, largely in the era of increased vigilance on the part of the MLB and fan distaste for the likes of Barry Bonds's prolate spheroidical head.
I submit that Aramis Ramírez will be worthy of a Hall of Fame induction when he retires. Will he get there? I don't know and I doubt it. The folks who make those calls seem to be coming around to advanced statistics, and it depends on Ramírez continuing to produce at the level he has consistently for the last nine years in Chicago. I think he'll end up with a very worthy case though, provided voters take into account the shitty teams he's played for and the fact that he's played his entire career at third. In any case -- and no doubt about this one -- he's a Cubs Hall of Famer for sure.
9.14.2011
Terry Castle on Outside Art
Oh my was this 07.28.11 essay in the LRB on outsider art, collecting it, and trying to answer the ambiguity of its commoditization or commoditization of its ambiguity a fantastic read. Unfortunately, it's subscriber-only (but if you ask nicely...)
I had never heard of Henry Darger, Martín Ramírez, Adolf Wölfli, et al, but damn am I glad I did, and Castle raises enough questions about contemporary art, the nature of meaning, and intentionality vis-a-vis a hypothetical audience to keep one busy for months.
I had never heard of Henry Darger, Martín Ramírez, Adolf Wölfli, et al, but damn am I glad I did, and Castle raises enough questions about contemporary art, the nature of meaning, and intentionality vis-a-vis a hypothetical audience to keep one busy for months.
9.13.2011
Saving Books by Making Them More Expensive?
Really fascinating piece by Bill Morris at The Millions on how the German pricing model (in which stores are not allowed to discount) has made for a still-vibrant indie bookstore culture there, as well as some distinguishing of German and American reading habits =P
9.11.2011
Some Thoughts (Not Comprehensive, but Based Around Making the Mistake of Turning on my Television This Morning) on 09.11
Okay. I know it's September 11th. I know it every year. I will never forget as long as I live. It's the one day in my life -- okay maybe the second to losing my virginity -- where each second changed every second of my subsequent existence. Even as a smug left-wing fucktard posing as an intellectualish-type, I tear up at the the thought of running into a classmate in the hallway between 2nd and 3rd period telling me that a plane hit the World Trade Center and not believing her. Nor will I ever forget arriving in third period to see my music instructor (I used to play a mean jazz trumpet -- this is entirely fictional, not what follows, but the having remote skill at music beyond reading notes), who, as far as I know, still exists in 1985 and a quite genial and laid-back dude, not the kind of guy you'd ever expect to shit about national security as long as his dealer was okay. So I walk in and see him standing at the radio with his hand over his mouth looking like the trombonist had just impaled his cat in front of him (can that happen? Should I try it on my cat? The only trombone I've ever personally handled is the rusty kind and that would be really hard to pull off with a neutered cat.).
Nor -- before the first tower had collapsed (I'm tearing up just thinking about it), watching the tower collapse on TV and seeing my hard-ass (but in I'm going to be a dick to you fucking kids but here for you day and night, in the classroom or out of it) AP US history teacher break down and in a tear-stained voice say, to no one in particular, "Oh my God. Nothing will ever be the same." Watching in complete disbelief, calling my father the second on leaving school just to let him know that I was all right, because the aftermath, who knew? It was the seminal moment of my life, and in the life of anyone affected by it -- essentially every American, Iraqi, Afghani, Pakistani, and what ever other nationality I left out that who've we've been fucking for the last decade. Shit last century.
Trust, no one forgets.
I'm going to spend it like I do every 09.11, remembering those who lost their lives that day, thinking of the insane courage of those incredible first-responders (I would have completely shat myself in their place), spending the one day a year I don't want to see George W. Bush in handcuffs (doesn't apply to Cheney), thanking our troops, mourning the ones that have fallen or been wounded in several meaningless wars launched on false premises thanks to 09.11, and remembering the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanis and Pakistanis who are dead thanks to those wars. It's a solemn day, and even when I'm 70 (who the fuck am I kidding? If I last 45 years, it'll be a small miracle) I'll remember it and those who suffered and suffer loss on it.
What I won't do is go anywhere near the mainstream media's "magic number that ends in a 5 or a 0" (because unsurprisingly, counting is not something they do well) daylong 09.11-a-thon. Cause if you think those surgically-enhanced millionaires give a shit about the victims of 09.11, you're nuttier than Osama bin Laden thinking he could fuck with New Yorkers and expect not to get face-fucked (literally, that did happen). I'm not going to indulge in the entertainment industry's (yeah mainstream media, that includes you) one day per year of giving a fuck about 09.11 victims, survivors, first-responders, police, fire, our soldiers etc. I'm not going to indulge in professional sports' continuing jingoistic idolatry of the military and their grandstanding of 09.11.
Sports might be the worst offenders on this count. I mean what company even fucking makes American flags the size of Texas for these military circle-jerks? Apparently a shitload of companies. I guess I can buy a "Heavy-Duty Poly" 40'-75' edition (I have no idea what that means) from "Flag Center" in nearby Wauwatosa, Wis. for just $5,100. I'd have to be missing grey matter to do it, but at least I know the option's out there. I'm not impressed by fly-overs -- and you assholes out there bitching about how necessary it is to cut health care funding for old and poor people who need it most, how much do those fucking fly-overs cost? I'll stand and applaud when returning soldiers, decorated soldiers, wounded soldiers throw out the first pitch or are honored before or during a game -- I just don't get why sports are the avenues for that. Shouldn't we be honoring them like all the time? I support troops. I have friends serving and have had friends who have served. My father served. Both my grandparents did. I just never want to see strong, smart, motivated, young people -- people who are just starting to figure shit out and decide what they want to do with their lives -- sent to die for no reason. And that's practically the reality of every war we've fought in the last fifty years. That's not your stereotypical "point at laugh as the sissy LGBT leftie hates America in the high-pitched Jon Stewart voice (you know exactly what I'm talking about)," that's fact. Support the troops? Bring them home.
Back to the media though, I don't need to see the towers being hit by planes. I don't need to see them crumbling or horrified/terrified New Yorkers fearing the worst. I certainly don't need to see G-Dubs, and have no desire to see bin Laden. None of the above will ever be anything but permanently seared into my memory. I did momentarily slip though, in like one of those going to the checkout line and realizing that Nestle Crunch is like $0.79 manners. I watched about ten minutes of 09.11 coverage and saw that kid at St. Patrick's reading the letter to his dead father he never met -- who's dead because he was an NYPD lieutenant who fell on 09.11 while helping fellow first-responders -- and sobbed for a solid ten. Tearing up just thinking about it.
I've never lived in New York or D.C. nor did anyone (to my knowledge) I'm closely associated with lose anything but the pair of pants they pissed on 09.11. So maybe my perspective's skewed. This whole media hullabaloo about the 10-year anniversary just feels like it's about them doing what they do best -- self-promotion. The people affected, directly and obliquely, are the ones who get fucked. So when it comes to remembering 09.11 and how completely terrified/shocked/devasted I was, I'm going to do it by hanging out with my parents, thinking of all affected, and keeping far away from the media bit.
Rest in peace departed, stand strong survivors, lower your rent New York, hunt Timmy Geithner D.C.. And fuck off MSM.
Updated: Amended to fix some orthographical errors.
Nor -- before the first tower had collapsed (I'm tearing up just thinking about it), watching the tower collapse on TV and seeing my hard-ass (but in I'm going to be a dick to you fucking kids but here for you day and night, in the classroom or out of it) AP US history teacher break down and in a tear-stained voice say, to no one in particular, "Oh my God. Nothing will ever be the same." Watching in complete disbelief, calling my father the second on leaving school just to let him know that I was all right, because the aftermath, who knew? It was the seminal moment of my life, and in the life of anyone affected by it -- essentially every American, Iraqi, Afghani, Pakistani, and what ever other nationality I left out that who've we've been fucking for the last decade. Shit last century.
Trust, no one forgets.
I'm going to spend it like I do every 09.11, remembering those who lost their lives that day, thinking of the insane courage of those incredible first-responders (I would have completely shat myself in their place), spending the one day a year I don't want to see George W. Bush in handcuffs (doesn't apply to Cheney), thanking our troops, mourning the ones that have fallen or been wounded in several meaningless wars launched on false premises thanks to 09.11, and remembering the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanis and Pakistanis who are dead thanks to those wars. It's a solemn day, and even when I'm 70 (who the fuck am I kidding? If I last 45 years, it'll be a small miracle) I'll remember it and those who suffered and suffer loss on it.
What I won't do is go anywhere near the mainstream media's "magic number that ends in a 5 or a 0" (because unsurprisingly, counting is not something they do well) daylong 09.11-a-thon. Cause if you think those surgically-enhanced millionaires give a shit about the victims of 09.11, you're nuttier than Osama bin Laden thinking he could fuck with New Yorkers and expect not to get face-fucked (literally, that did happen). I'm not going to indulge in the entertainment industry's (yeah mainstream media, that includes you) one day per year of giving a fuck about 09.11 victims, survivors, first-responders, police, fire, our soldiers etc. I'm not going to indulge in professional sports' continuing jingoistic idolatry of the military and their grandstanding of 09.11.
Sports might be the worst offenders on this count. I mean what company even fucking makes American flags the size of Texas for these military circle-jerks? Apparently a shitload of companies. I guess I can buy a "Heavy-Duty Poly" 40'-75' edition (I have no idea what that means) from "Flag Center" in nearby Wauwatosa, Wis. for just $5,100. I'd have to be missing grey matter to do it, but at least I know the option's out there. I'm not impressed by fly-overs -- and you assholes out there bitching about how necessary it is to cut health care funding for old and poor people who need it most, how much do those fucking fly-overs cost? I'll stand and applaud when returning soldiers, decorated soldiers, wounded soldiers throw out the first pitch or are honored before or during a game -- I just don't get why sports are the avenues for that. Shouldn't we be honoring them like all the time? I support troops. I have friends serving and have had friends who have served. My father served. Both my grandparents did. I just never want to see strong, smart, motivated, young people -- people who are just starting to figure shit out and decide what they want to do with their lives -- sent to die for no reason. And that's practically the reality of every war we've fought in the last fifty years. That's not your stereotypical "point at laugh as the sissy LGBT leftie hates America in the high-pitched Jon Stewart voice (you know exactly what I'm talking about)," that's fact. Support the troops? Bring them home.
Back to the media though, I don't need to see the towers being hit by planes. I don't need to see them crumbling or horrified/terrified New Yorkers fearing the worst. I certainly don't need to see G-Dubs, and have no desire to see bin Laden. None of the above will ever be anything but permanently seared into my memory. I did momentarily slip though, in like one of those going to the checkout line and realizing that Nestle Crunch is like $0.79 manners. I watched about ten minutes of 09.11 coverage and saw that kid at St. Patrick's reading the letter to his dead father he never met -- who's dead because he was an NYPD lieutenant who fell on 09.11 while helping fellow first-responders -- and sobbed for a solid ten. Tearing up just thinking about it.
I've never lived in New York or D.C. nor did anyone (to my knowledge) I'm closely associated with lose anything but the pair of pants they pissed on 09.11. So maybe my perspective's skewed. This whole media hullabaloo about the 10-year anniversary just feels like it's about them doing what they do best -- self-promotion. The people affected, directly and obliquely, are the ones who get fucked. So when it comes to remembering 09.11 and how completely terrified/shocked/devasted I was, I'm going to do it by hanging out with my parents, thinking of all affected, and keeping far away from the media bit.
Rest in peace departed, stand strong survivors, lower your rent New York, hunt Timmy Geithner D.C.. And fuck off MSM.
Updated: Amended to fix some orthographical errors.
9.08.2011
Your 2011 Milwaukee Brewers
Writing this from my sickbed, but here goes --
The Brewers picked the wrong year to get so good. They'll fall to the Phillies, probably 4-1, in the NLCS. Gallardo would get a win, but they'll start him against Halladay or Lee, which is a waste (why do teams do that? It seems it would be far smarter to start your ace against the opposition's less-good starters than potentially waste a start against their ace. At the worst, that would come out 1-1. Never understood that logic. Nate Silver, Jonah Keri, Rob Neyer, tell me why I'm horribly mistaken.) And no Cardinals fans, you aren't going to beat the Brew Crew -- even with their upcoming series against Philly. I had the pleasure of attending a recent Brewers-Cubs game, and the home crowd at Miller Park (one of the loveliest fields I've had the joy of attending) literally wills the team to win. The atmosphere is just electric -- the fans believe and the players know they do. Reminded me of the Bulls crowd this past NBA season. Even with a 30% Cubs crowd, the noise was deafening. In a small-market city with the likely probability of losing Prince Fielder this off-season, the fans know this might just be their best shot at the first Brewers World Series title ever and first pennant since 1982.
So let's start with the starting pitching.
Zach Greinke has been on and off this year, but still has posted a 14-6, 3.93 ERA, 172 K in an injury-limited 148.2 IP with a 1.17 WHIP and a .245 BAA. Many folks (myself among them) expected better coming to the NL Central, but that 10.71 K/9 is best in the bigs and a solid 0.7 ahead of Clayton Kershaw (who is the most dominant pitcher in the league that seemingly no one is talking about. Why is this? He plays for a franchise, though troubled with the McCourt saga, that has a legacy in the league and in a huge market. Don't feed me lies about Stephen Strasburg's idealistic future -- yes that's a Postal Service reference -- when Kershaw is completely dominating the NL. I've harped about this on Twitter often, and Halladay, as my favorite athlete and completely owning just about every hitter he faces, has been anointed the NL Cy Young winner already, some buzz about Kershaw is highly overdue.) Back to Greinke -- he still has that overpowering fastball, good change, and devastating slider. Slot him into the two hole in a postseason series.
Yovani Gallardo is the staff ace, and the fine gent I had the pleasure of watching at Miller. His line that night (against an admittedly feeble Cubs lineup): a 7.0 IP, 6H, 1 R, 0 ER, BB, 10K effort. St. Louis has not been kind to him in his two most recent starts, which has sent him to 15-10, 3.71 ERA, 56 BB, 171K in 187.0 IP. 254 BAA land. His biggest problem: giving up home runs, with 24 thus far. That's too many for 187.0 IP. Like so many power pitches, he also runs his pitch count high early in the game. At 25 (shit, that's older than me), he has plenty of time to learn to throw grounders and rely less on the strikeout. For the postseason though, Milwaukee rises or falls on Gallardo and Greinke being solid.
Then there's Shawn Marcum -- perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball, and sporting a 12-5, 3.11 ERA, 49 BB, 143 K in 176.1 record with a 1.09 WHIP and a sterling .211 BAA. The Brewers trade for him from Toronto was one of the best recent deals. As a No. 3 starter, he's probably among the best in the league. Only concern: no playoff experience. True of Greinke as well and Gallardo has only one playoff start, so blame my preference for strikeout pitchers, but I just have more faith in them come the postseason. I just think of Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, and Pedro, though all three are Hall of Famers, not just strikeout pitchers. Anyway, against Hamels, Marcum will be overmatched.
Randy Wolf is your standard journeyman with okay stuff, yet able to eat innings: Oswalt can match him easily.
That leaves Narveson in the pen, about whom I know very little. His numbers aren't impressive.
Speaking of the bullpen: LaTroy Hawkins gave every Cubs fan a heart attack when he briefly closed. At that game at Miller, he gave up 4 H in 0.1 IP with a 3-run Alfonso Soriano double, though has since been solid though rarely-used. K-Rod has been decent since coming over from the Mets, and is a fairly reliable setup man. Takashi Saito has been brilliant since coming off the DL. Kameron Loe has been decent, nothing special. Frankie De La Cruz has been outstanding since being called up on 10 August: 1.86 ERA, 0.83 WHIP. Then there's John Axford closing, he of the 41/43 save/save opp. record and of the Eckersley-level 'stache. Utterly dominant this year, throwing 96-97 every night. All in all, the Brewers pen is pretty damn good, and good bullpens make for good playoff teams.
So to the offense: obviously starting with Mr. Braun, who's having an MVP-level season. .332, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 31 SB (only 6 CS) with a .988 OPS. Those are some staggering numbers, and Braun isn't a waste of space defensively either. He's become one of the best-hitting outfielders in the game (and my Brewers fan friend's heartthrob). He's only slightly overshadowing his first-base teammate Prince Fielder. How does .293, 31 HR, 108 RBI, .946 OPS sound in a pitcher-dominant season? Pretty good. Those two alone can win a game. Around the diamond, Casey McGehee is a liability -- a .293 OBP/.653 OPS just doesn't cut it. Yunieski Betancourt is even worse at short, sporting a .271 OBP and .644 OPS. Jerry Hairston at second is, well, Jerry Hairston .341 OBP/.713 OPS. Essentially average.
Nyjer Morgan in center is decent with an .801 OPS but also nothing special. His anger at the Cards was refreshing though. This seems to be a theme. Seriously YouTube "Nyjer Morgan fight" and there are many examples. Now, I'm a fan of baseball hotheads and bench-clearing brawls. Carlos Zambrano's tirade at Derrek Lee completely galvanized the 2009 Cubs and made for good theater as well. Yet Morgan isn't good enough (Zambrano isn't either anymore) to run his mouth off. That kind of thing can hamstring a club with World Series designs. We'll see if he can hold it together. Honestly I've been impressed with the 2011 Corey Hart -- 23 HR, .849 OPS and solid defense in left.
Basically the Brewers rise and fall with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder abusing opposing pitchers. Solid defense, which is more important than ESPN thinks outside of Top Ten Plays (which, in a minor complaint didn't include Victor Martinez's go-ahead grand slam last night).
In any other year, the Brewers would be a definite pick to represent the NL in the World Series. Yet this year, the Phillies just have the look of a legendary team. The Brewers will own the NL Central over the Cards (not to even mention my feckless Cubs). Whether they can make it to the top will depend on Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum and the non-Braun/Fielder batsmen.
Next up: the New York Yankees.
9.06.2011
9.05.2011
The Kind of Relationship I Desire
Essentially the gig that Jamie Kilstein and Allison Kilkenny have -- just listening to Citizen Radio shows how much they dig each other and their hipsterish chemistry. Totally want that with yet-unnamed boy or girl.
Review of Jan Morris's Hav
Currently available at the most recent issue of Bookslut. Check it out and send me hatred... or at least well-written critique.
9.03.2011
2011 Boston Red Sox
So let's move on to the Sox. They will be your ALCS Champs, sweeping the Rangers in the divisional series and outlasting the Yanks in the AL Series 4-2.
This despite extraordinarily suspect starting pitching. Let's start there, as the staff is Boston's greatest weakness. You've got your aces in Lester (14-6, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and in Beckett (12-5, 2.54, 0.98). Very solid top two. It gets thin quickly after that. John Lackey is a train wreck. I winced when the Sox signed him, and his 2011 has done nothing to alleviate that concern. How does a 12-10, 5.94 ERA, 1.55 WHIP feel? Not good. Opponents are hitting .299 against him. Two years in Boston makes me an honorary Sox fan, and Lackey makes A.J. Burnett look good. To round out the rotation there's either Timmeh Wakefield or Erik Bedard. I don't envy Terry Francona this decision. You go with the ancient Wakefield and roll the dice on the knuckleball or you go with the unproven Bedard who has the better stuff. Either way the four-slot is a tossup.
The Sox bullpen isn't a whole lot better. Yes, Papelbon has been solid all year and is very reliable in the 9th. Daniel Bard is one of the better set-up men in the AL. Aceves, Wheeler, and Miller do not, however, inspire confidence. The Sox will rise or fall if their starters can make it seven innings to get to Bard and Papelbon. Lester and Beckett, it's on you to step up.
Offensively, the Sox are loaded 1-9. Jacoby Ellsbury is the most talented leadoff hitter in baseball. Without question. He hits for power, average, and runs. .313, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 36 SB, .895 OPS in the leadoff slot. Follow him with Dustin Pedroia, he of the AL MVP: only hitting .308, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 25 SB, .871 OPS. Then there's Adrian Gonzalez, perhaps the best signing of the Epstein era not named Curt Schilling. If he loses AL MVP to Justin Verlander (which could well happen and which I'd support; sorry Adrian) he'll go down as perhaps the most dominant hitter to lose out on the MVP. Numbers: .342, 23 HR, 103 RBI, .956 OPS. Beyond that, he's established himself as the heart and soul of the 2011 Sox, capable of changing a game or series with one swing. At third, you've got Youk, who, in an off year, is still putting up a .264 17 HR 78 RBI with an .855 OPS line. At DH, Big Papi has rediscovered how to hit, to the tune of a .311, 28 HR, 88 RBI, .985 (!) OPS. That's an MVP line. Varitek/Saltalamacchia have been solid behind the plate, Reddick seems reliable.
So yeah, the Sox will rise or fall based on their offense. If Lester and Beckett can shut down the opposition, the Sox hitters should be able to carry Lackey.
Prediction: AL Champs, losing 4-2 to the Phillies in the World Series.
Addendum: I did neglect mentioning Carl Crawford, who has since hit a grand slam today. After a dismal April and May, he's rediscovered what hitting means, and if he gets hot is an extremely dangerous hitter. Defensively non pareil.
9.02.2011
Sonata No. 1 for Violin and Piano, op. 80
Prokofiev. The most heart-rending piece of music ever composed. I will stand by that.
9.01.2011
The 2011 Phillies
As the regular season begins to wind down and as post-season races heat up, I imagine I'll be writing about baseball every five days or so. Consider this installment one now that September is here.
I'm going to start with the presumptive World Series favorites and the best team in baseball now and for the entire season -- the Philadelphia Phillies. My beloved Cubs have been out of the playoff picture since about the third week of April, so I have no compunction when it comes to rooting for the Phils to win it all this year. Roy Halladay has been my favorite athlete -- across all sports, comfortably filling the vacuum adolescent Brett Favre left when I realized he was a franchise-retarding douche -- for quite some time, and I'll root for him on any team against any team except the Cubs. He's going to win another Cy Young this year. That will be number three. You might have recalled from last season that he pitched only the 20th perfect game EVER and only the second post-season no-hitter EVER. Major League Baseball's current complete game leader with 63 (19 shutouts, and in an era that's decidedly hostile to the complete game, though don't tell James Shields that). Career record of 184-91, and a definite possible for the first 300-game winner of the 21st century, among pitchers who have exclusively started in this century. (Yes I know Halladay came up in '98, but really, his pre-2000 career in the bigs doesn't count)
But I digress. I could gush about Doc all day and how he makes me mourn for a glorious baseball past I wasn't alive to see. Let's talk about the Phils in general. Anchored by Halladay, that staff is ridiculous. Cliff Lee (15-7, 2.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, third pitcher EVER after Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson to post two months in the same season with an undefeated record with at least four wins and a sub-1.00 ERA) is a proven post-season maestro, and gives the Phils the opportunity to go R-L-L-R in a series, or even R-L-R-L to really fuck with the opposition. Those second two, by the way, are Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) -- who's seemingly finally mastered his wicked stuff -- and Roy Oswalt (6-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.41 WHIP but 156-91, 3.21, 1.19 career). Think about that. In a seven-game series, the Phillies can send out Halladay-Lee-Hamels with Oswalt in the pen or Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt to save Halladay and Lee for the NLCS/World Series.
Am I forgetting someone? Ah yes, Vance Worley. Who? you might ask. Just the Phillies' number five 23-year old rookie starter who would be the ace of at least half of MLB clubs. For numbers, how does 10-1, 2.85 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .224 BAA sound? He'll be a reliever when the postseason rolls around. Add to that bullpen the man with the best name in baseball -- Antonio Bastardo, he of the 1.38 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 3.26 K/BB, .114 BAA (!) -- Brad Lidge, charter member of the mercurial 21st century closer club and still capable of the 10-pitch 1.0 IP, 0/0/0 3K line, with the extremely reliable Ryan Madson (2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26/28 in saves) to finish things off.
In short the 2011 Phils could score two runs per game and still kick ass. However...
There's the lineup. Let's start with Shane Victorino, number two or lead-off guy with Jimmy Rollins on the 15-day DL. Has a .919 OPS. I'm too lazy to check right now, but I'm pretty sure that's top three among current lead-off hitters in all of baseball. Hits for average, doesn't swing at bad pitches, power to both fields, not super-speedy, but smart on the bases and steals when available. Rollins -- who should be back in form for the postseason -- has been overrated his entire career, yet still can hit for power, steal bases, and is above average defensively at short. I really think Victorino is the better choice at 1, based on OBP, but it's hard to argue with a one-two punch of Rollins-Victorino especially with three and four. Speaking of whom... Moving along the infield, you've got Ryan Howard, who is also overrated with an .827 OPS at the power position, yet who can also change a game or series with one swing. Chase Utley has been injured and is slowly coming back, but should get better as September moves into October. When he's right, he's without doubt the best all-around second-baseman in the game. At third you have a platoon of Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez. Neither amounts to much. Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider behind the plate, neither of whom could hit an eephus pitch, but both of whom are solid defensively and definitely can call games.
Outfield isn't much better. Hunter Pence was a huge upgrade in left, both defensively and in terms of adding a power bat who gets on base fairly reliably (.366 OBP). Victorino is about average defensively in center, already mentioned his offensive production. Ibañez in left has been a liability all season -- like the guy, but his 39 years are showing. His mobility defensively has been suspect all season, and a .288 OBP is inexcusable. At least he has postseason experience, and with 17 HR out of 107 hits, does damage when he does connect.
All in all, the Phillies will rise or fall on the basis of their loaded pitching staff. Their offense is less than average, defense slightly better than average, but three runs in the postseason will all but guarantee a win.
Prediction: World Series champions, beating the Boston Red Sox 4-2.
Up next: the Boston Red Sox.
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